As the NBA regular season ends, we turn to one of my favorite traditions – the way-too-early top 12 for the following season.
For the first time in three years, there's a real debate at the top. Below that, the first round is deeper than it's been in years, as there are no first-round talents currently (knock on wood) injured or returning from a major injury. Newer names, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, have cemented their place among the Fantasy elite, while older standbys like Paul George and Kyrie Irving feel a bit more reliable than they did at this point last year.
So let's get to it: how am I currently ranking the first round for the 2024-25 Fantasy season?
The "Clear Top Two" tier
1. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
It's already time. I really wrestled with keeping Nikola Jokic at the top – and he has a very strong case – but Wembanyama's late-season stats are just overwhelming. Even if he "only" matches the 22-11-4 with 3.7 blocks that he put up through the first 35 games of 2024, he'd be in the conversation for No. 1. The strategic advantage that many blocks would provide is enough to balance out the advantage of Jokic's assists. But, what if, instead, Wemby can match what he's done over the last three weeks of the season? During that stretch, he's up to 26-13-7 and 5.0 blocks. Then his passing would be within striking distance of Jokic, and his blocks could realistically double the total put up by the second player in the standings. Or, what if the 20-year-old rising Sophom*ore keeps improving? In that case, he'd easily run away with Fantasy's No. 1 ranking next season.
There are risks. There's justifiable optimism that Wembanyama might avoid the injuries that have typically plagued the NBA's super-tall players (he's currently the tallest in the league; only four players have ever played more games and are taller), but there's also justifiable concern there. Player development is never a straight line, so we can't just take continued improvement as a given. He's also likely to have a more talented surrounding cast next year, which could result in a different role on both sides of the ball. I think both the floor and the ceiling justify the risk, but the story of the offseason should not be "it's obviously Wemby at the top".
2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
After three seasons as Fantasy's undisputed champion (i.e., No. 1 in both 8-cat and 9-cat), he's fallen all the way to… the No. 2 spot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has edged out Jokic in 9-cat, while the pair's 8-cat ranks are still so close that the final two games could swing the result. Joel Embiid's per-game numbers are better than both, but he played only 38 games. And while all three are fantastic Fantasy options, Jokic should still be the easy preference on draft day. Jokic, entering his age 29-season, has been the most durable superstar since prime James Harden. Most importantly, Jokic's passing as a center is the second-most strategically valuable stat in Fantasy (behind only Wembanyama's blocks). Jokic averaged 9.0 per game this season, good for fourth in the league. There are only two other centers inside the top-25, and both of them will show up later in this column. Assists are the hardest category to find late in drafts or on waivers, and Jokic provides a massive numerical and strategic advantage there. Even if Jokic wasn't basically tied atop the Fantasy ranks, his passing would make him worth considering there.
The "Still-Amazing Runners Up" tier
For the last three offseasons, several analysts have made compelling arguments in favor of selecting Luka Doncic with the first or second overall pick. His stats have improved across the board, yet, in 2024, few will consider him before pick No. 4. It's an incredible testament to the depth of talent in Fantasy and in the NBA at large that these players should be out of the running for the No. 1 pick next season.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander is entering his age-26 season, has improved every year of his career, and will finish 2023-24 as the best or second-best Fantasy contributor. So, what gives? Shouldn't he be in the first tier, if not the first overall pick? Most importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't offer any comparable strategic benefit a la Wembanyama's blocks or Jokic's assists. Gilgeous-Alexander's best Fantasy category is steals, a stat that is notorious both for how much year-to-year variation it sees and for how z-score ranks overstate its impact. Also, while Gilgeous-Alexander may still improve, the odds are that 20-year-old rising Sophom*ore Wembanyama's improvement will be much larger. Meanwhile, the surrounding talent on the Thunder is likely to improve more than that of the Nuggets.
All that is why Gilgeous-Alexander isn't higher. If you want to understand why he's so high, just go back and read that first sentence again.
4. Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Doncic is even younger than Gilgeous-Alexander, entering his age-25 season. He'll be coming off his first-ever top-five Fantasy finish, buoyed by improved free throw shooting and a career high minutes load. Both of those are double-edged swords, however. Free throw shooting can vary significantly from season to season (check out the wide variance throughout LeBron James' career), and Doncic attempts so many that a few percentage points can make a meaningful difference. Similarly, his 37.5 minutes per game ranks fourth-most this year, and would have led the league in four of the last six seasons – we have to assume that will drop off, at least a little bit. On the other hand, no matter how many minutes he plays, Doncic is a near-lock to finish inside the top-five in points, the top-10 in assists, and the top-15 in threes (he'll finish 2nd, 4th, and 2nd, respectively, in 2023-24). He also logged the most rebounds of any non-big man this season.
5. Joel Embiid, 76ers
Embiid's January knee injury brought back some dormant fears about the big man's injury risk. On some level, that's fair – he's now on the wrong side of 30, he's missed at least 14 games every season, and missed more than half of four seasons (including the two missed seasons at the start of his career). On the other hand, he's clearly a better Fantasy producer than everyone not already listed in this column. His per-game numbers easily outranked even Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander this year. If you want to avoid the risk and prioritize Jayson Tatum, I understand and give you my blessing. But if injury fears are the reason that you're avoiding Embiid, Tatum is really the only remaining justifiable alternative. For everyone else, either the stat drop-off is too extreme or you're underrating the injury risk posed by your preferred alternative.
The "I can't believe one of these guys will fall to eighth" tier
6. Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers
Haliburton was in a unique position in 2023-24 – this was the key season for determining the value of his next contract, where earning All-NBA would earn him an extra $40-plus million. In order to preserve his eligibility, he came back prematurely from an injury and played the minimum minutes required for a week, and then slowly ramped up from there. It was all perfectly rational, but it also depressed his stats. Despite the award-criteria-hanky-panky, he still finished as a top-12 Fantasy asset and the league-leader in assists. The passing is his primary appeal, but he doesn't hurt anywhere, and his FG% and turnover rate is far better than you'd typically find in a high-assist point guard.
7. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Tatum is the physical embodiment of "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it". He's finished just inside Fantasy's top-15 for each of the last four seasons, while missing eight or fewer games every year. He's only 26 years old, so further improvement is still possible, but it's nearly impossible to imagine him challenging for Fantasy's No. 1 spot. On the other hand, he's as safe a draft pick as there is, with a pretty classic "good at everything, elite at nothing" stat profile. He maximizes draft flexibility, which is particularly helpful if you have strong preferences for your second and third round targets.
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Antetokounmpo's combination of poor free throw shooting at a massive volume basically locks managers into a punt-FT build. There are downsides to being locked in so early. But there are advantages, too, especially when it comes to finding value in the draft. From a punt-FT perspective, Antetokounmpo is a top-5 producer. He's among the league-leaders in points and rebounds, one of the better non-PG passers, and he has the largest positive impact on FG% of anyone in Fantasy. So sure, his free throws are terrible, his turnovers are high, and he doesn't do much in threes. But the pros easily outweigh the cons, especially in the back half of the first round.
The "Oldies But Goodies" tier
9. Anthony Davis, Lakers
I've long maintained that Davis has a case to be a top-five Fantasy player this century. Part of the problem he's facing in 2024-25 is the use of "long" there: Davis is an old 31. He peaked young, so he's already several years removed from his prime, and has dealt with tons of injuries. That said, he's finished inside Fantasy's top-10 in back-to-back seasons. He's still among the league leaders in blocks (fourth) and rebounds (third). Only five players averaged at least 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steals, and two of them are listed above. He's set to match his career-high for games played the day this article comes out, with a chance to set a career best on Sunday. If Davis can stay relatively healthy, he should be able to provide a small profit on this draft position.
10. Kevin Durant, Suns
On the topic of all-time Fantasy greats, Durant is my pick for No. 1 this century. At the ripe old age of 35, he just added another top-12 finish to his resume. He's the definition of a well-rounded contributor, providing positive value (according to z-scores) in seven categories, and only missing out on an eighth by five or fewer steals (depending on how many he gets in the last two games). He's older than Tatum and doesn't come close to Tatum's track record of durability, but his well-rounded production makes him a solid consolation prize for managers who had hoped that Tatum might fall.
11. Stephen Curry, Warriors
Despite a month-long shooting slump, Curry will once again lead the NBA in threes, and by a gigantic margin. He'll also lead in FT% and finish in the top-15 for scoring. His assists and rebounds took a notable drop, which is why he's fallen to the bottom of this column. But Curry remains an excellent option, and the Warriors don't have the flexibility to meaningfully change his surrounding cast.
The "You Missed Out On Haliburton" tier
12. Trae Young, Hawks maybe
Young's stat profile similar to Haliburton's in many ways. Young scores a lot more (+6), while Haliburton has a meaningful edge in blocks (+0.5), turnovers (-2.0), and FG% (+5%). Their assists, steals, and threes are all very similar, and they enter the final weekend with an identical FT% (.857). Despite their similarities, there are a few good reasons to have Haliburton a tier above. Those differences in blocks, TOs, and FG% represent the gap between basically neutral production and a harmful categorical drain. Also, Haliburton's stats are slightly depressed by his award-criteria-hanky-panky.
It seems inevitable that the Young-Dejounte Murray pairing will get split up this summer, and my money is on Young being the one who gets traded. His final rank will shift depending on the trade details. If things break right for him, he could jump ahead of Durant and Curry.
Honorable Mention
Paul George, Clippers (?) – If George is, in fact, a member of the Clippers in 2024-25, then I will bump him up, probably to No. 10 overall. But if he moves to Philadelphia, as seems increasingly likely, then I'll have to knock him down a few spots. Fantasy managers are, generally speaking, more concerned than necessary about the negative impact of superstars teaming up, and George would be leaving a star-studded Los Angeles lineup. That said, I would expect George's usage and scoring to drop at least a little if he becomes a 76er.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks – 2023-24 was unquestionably the most "normal" season of Irving's career. In terms of games played, he might tie for the 5th-highest total of his 13-year career. In terms of unnecessarily provoked media firestorms, he's easily setting a career-low. Per-game, he's easily been a top-15 player for the last six seasons. If you're willing to bet that this year represents newfound maturity from the mercurial point guard, then feel free to bump him up to the end of the first round. I, however, am not comfortable making that bet.
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers – Leonard has finished inside Fantasy's top-10 in six of the last nine years. He was recovering from an ACL tear in one of those remaining three. But he played nine games combined in the final two. He's a massive injury risk, and it's difficult to justify taking on that risk with a first-round pick. That said, in terms of games missed, his record isn't that much worse than Embiid's or Durant's, and his per-game productivity isn't far behind those two, either.
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers (?) – Mitchell will finish 2023-24 inside the top 10. Entering his age-28 season, it's possible he's already reached his peak, though we shouldn't rule out continued improvement. But his high Fantasy finish was due in part to a seemingly-anomalous career high in steals, and he otherwise lacks a standout Fantasy skill. The uncertainty surrounding his situation next year (will he still be a Cav? If he is, what does the surrounding cast look like?) adds to my hesitation.
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves – there's usually a lot of overlap between the Fantasy top-10 and the actual basketball top-10. If Edwards isn't already in the real basketball top-10, I expect he'll get there next year. Fantasy-wise, he hasn't yet proven that he's worth a second-round pick, let alone a first. But I imagine he'll get there sooner rather than later.
Fred VanVleet, Rockets – No one will actually consider VanVleet in the first round, and many won't even draft him in the second. But he's a lot closer to first-round value than most realize. He'll finish with an early-second-round value in 9-cat, and he's a top-12 player if you're punting any of points, rebounds, or FG%.
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers – If the 76ers don't add a third star this offseason, would anyone be that surprised to see Maxey with a top-15 finish next year? There's a reason Maxey is last here, even below VanVleet, but he's someone I'll keep a careful eye on.
